MATCH PREVIEW

No, then.

Anything?

@imolavs, could you, in short, please explain what point you are trying to make? Just summarise in a brief sentence or something because I don't understand.

We both seem to be agreed that del Potro played well..... but he is not, in any way, shape or form, better than Federer as you have stated. Following that, you also said that "it is not acceptable to have 59 tips on Federer". Nobody ever really found out what that meant either... You criticized everybody for tipped Roger who was at one stage just two points from victory - but obviously it isn't about that.

You answered my question by basically saying del Potro improved as the match wore on. I am aware of that... I watched the match in full. Why is that relevant to people who backed Federer? I don't understand what point you want to make out of it.

Can you also explain this: "Yes, Federer could have been won, but only by chance....and only due to DelPotro mental status ...so not due to a better game...."?

What has it all been about?

...not an issue related to the tennis that DelpOtro has been played

"del Potro won a mere 1% more points in one single match"
- a tight match is won only on few points
- next is not only 1% is what really happened on Federer's second serve
you need to see here the pressure that DelPotro put on Federer second serve: Federer was scared about DelPotro strong return on his second serve : as result Federer made 11 double faults ==> trying to force his Second Service both in speed as in its placement: When did you see Federer making 11 double faults? Why you don't ask yourself why this happen?
- next you need to count DelPOtro strong returns both on Federer backhand (especially in the last 3 sets) or DelPotro strong forhands after Federer second service


"Federer was two points away from winning the match at one stage... would you have made the same comments then? "
It was ...but it was at-30 in the fourth set after DelPotro leads with 4-3 with break on the second set and having again a break 4-3 in the third
After 0-2 in the second set DelPotro leads completly the match, only his mental issues generates: 4-3 to 4-6 in the second set with 2 double faults in the last game and 4-3 to 4-4 in the third set - that could have been triggered the same mental lock due to the simmetry of the situation, whenever he arrives in front on the score table...fortunately for him he passed this lock.....
Yes, Federer could have been won, but only by chance....and only due to DelPotro mental status ...so not due to a better game....


"Federer was two points away from winning the match at one stage... would you have made the same comments then? "

@carson everybody has seen that after the first set and 0-2 in the second DelPotro started to play better and better....Only his mental state wasn't linear - to have 4-3 in the thirsd set and to loose with 4-6 with 2 double faults at 4-5 was for sure a phsihological issue not a

@imolavs,

"I will not extend this thread but I just want to say that all I have written here was ONLY RELATED TO THAT particular match...the topic was to make a prediction for THAT PARTICULAR MATCH"

In your PRE-MATCH analysis you wrote the following: "...second service for sure better than Federer's one", "3. DelPotro's forhand is better than Federer's one currently".

So YOU were generalizing? After the match had concluded, you then continuted to type many bromidic comments such as: "DelPotro second service IS for sure better than Federer's one.....". (*Highlighted word "is"*)

Moreover, del Potro won 1% more second serve points during the match - hardly a valid measuring stick and as various others have pointed out there's many variables to consider to go with it.

Another quote, "@destroyer9 wrote:
"How you can rate del Potro's second serve better than Federer's one is absolutely beyond human logic because it's about 5 times worse..""

Your reply to it: "@destroyer I can because the Match Statistic shows this.

Could you check the Match Statistics FIRST PLEASE?"

Furthermore, and probably your most impressive yet! - "So From where you took that Federer is 5-Times better on the second serve? Please be accurate and based on the statistics when you assert something measurable..."

LOL... You are measuring it with the fact del Potro won a mere 1% more points in one single match... You are wrong and flawed all through this thread (and seem incapable of grasping quite simple reasoning), which leads me to believe that you are either on the wind-up, drug and alcohol-addled, or just a "lost cause". Federer was two points away from winning the match at one stage... would you have made the same comments then?

Finally, if you wanted to talk about that match only, why didn't you talk about that match only from the beginning instead of making impetuous and groundless comments? I suggest you read the whole thread back to yourself - if you have the patience to wade through the tedium, that is. Still not sure what you were trying to prove anyway, and why? Is nothing to back up what you are saying. Nothing at all.

THIS IS ALSO CLEARLY WRITTEN IN THE TITLE OF THIS THREAD...


" US Open GS (USA) - Hard Court, Final. Best of 5 sets. match stats

(6)Juan Martin Del Potro(ARG)
DEFEATED (1)Roger Federer(SUI)

3-6 7-6(5) 4-6 7-6(4) 6-2

On Court Sep 14 2009 20:15 GMT

---------------------------------------------------
View/Add Your Insight FOR THIS MATCH"
---------------------------------------------------

so why you have come with some generalities here ?

"Federer's second serve is recognised as the most solid and reliable one in the game today, and this is something the Argentine will need to continue to work towards improving in the future."

when is clearl;y written :
---------------------------------------------------
View/Add Your Insight FOR THIS MATCH ?
---------------------------------------------------

@D.carson :
I will not extend this thread but I just want to say that all I have written here was ONLY RELATED TO THAT particular match...the topic was to make a prediction for THAT PARTICULAR MATCH

I don't see any sense to make considerations regarding how good is Federer in general (or how good is 'In General' his complete set of skills or in particular his first or second service) because we know already ...

So 'a General Discussion' on how good is Federer's second service "in general" ' when all of us neeeded to talk about THAT PARTICULAR MATCH....wasn't triggered by me....

So I consider your remark not on the subject :

"Federer's second serve is recognised as the most solid and reliable one in the game today, ..."

Yes, but the topic was on Federer - DelPotro Match....

@imolays, regardless of whether it was or not, nobody actually stated that Federer's second serve was better than del Potro's in THAT particular match, as you persist in referring to. It is no secret that del Potro served well and player a fantastic match and was a deserving winner - well done - and it is also no secret that del Potro's second serve has been a glaring and well-documented weakness throughout his short career.

Federer's second serve is recognised as the most solid and reliable one in the game today, and this is something the Argentine will need to continue to work towards improving in the future. Again, nobody contested your statement that del Potro put in a good serving display on Monday, so however inane, however ignorant, however vacuous, however banal, however lacking in accuracy or acumen you continue to post, it will merely continue to irk other people simply because you do not listen.

@imolavs: I'd also like to congratulate you on your Del Potro pick.
I didn't see his win coming - well done.

@imolavs: Didn't see the post until you just pointed it out - it has been deleted.

Can I just ask everyone to drop this debate please.

@rafanadal85 I didn't qualify you at all.....@paul where are THE RULES?

On your subject:

"My rubbish" supply to the TI members a RIGHT PREDICTION for a 3.50 Odds

Their bright presentations couldn't supply a RIGHT PREDICTION for a 1.25 oddd

So I prefer "my rubbish".....HONESTLY

Regarding your rubbish now: For me to see DelPotro at 55% on his second serve versus Federer 54% and to continue to sustain that Federer Second Serve works better than DelPotro one in this match this is really Rubbish for sure...


Bye too....

@srllemo I agree with all you are saying but I still consider
"2nd SERVE POINTS WON %" on each of the 2 players, as the single matter that counts on the Second Service....even an indirect one : BECAUSE 'SECOND SERVICE' MEANS 'NOTHING' WITHOUT THE RETURN OF THE OPPONENT (you didn't play to the wall finally)

Of course I couldn't imagine 11 double faults on Federer's Service...

But I have imagined a Strong Return of DelPotro on Federer's Second Service and it was the case (not in the 1st set, of course) MUCH STRONGER than Federer's Return on delPotro's Second Service (and it was again the case)

This Fact made Federer angry (usually he largely leads his own games, and here he was always under the pressure of a strong return on his Second Service) so he forced his Services : the First One - to close immediately the point BUT also the Second One - not to arrive in defense immediately ...

THIS STRESS WAS THE MAIN CAUSE OF FEDERER RELATIVELY POOR SERVICES : FINALLY DELPOTRO HAS 15 BREAK-POINTS ...EXCLUDING THE FIRST SET (that didn't count here) this means an average of 4 Break Points By SET...
this means a ratio of 4/6 = 2/3 = 0.66 Break-Points By Game - a very high rate in relation with his 'usual' 0.22 break-points/games


What I couldn't imagine was Federer's First Service very poor Ratio....

Hey HuggyB,its ok. But did you get those 3 aces because of my post,haha??

@imolavs

Lol m8 I really don't undestand that, you said 2nd service is better because in whole match he won 1 % more points after 2nd service than his opponent. It is not any kind of valid measure to rate quality of 2nd service, because number of points won after 2nd service is not affected only with quality of service but also with quality of return on those service, number of errors commited by returner, number of double faults commited by server etc.

If you want to say that you predicted that Federer will commit so many double faults I don't believe in that because it is something that can't be predicted. I don't remeber I've ever seen Federer serving 11 double faults in match especially not in final match of grand slam event.

Yes, your prediction was correct and I congrats you for that and to all other JMDP backers but those facts you ware considering in your post rating Del Potro 2nd service as better than 2nd service of probably best server ever in game is something I can't agree despite the result of yesterday match. Beside that just like in any other sport better player not always the winner, and also better server is not always winning more points agter his service and best returner also don't win more points on return etc.

as I said yesterday: the MAJOR ERROR RATE (I INCLUDE MYSELF HERE) APPEARS WHEN YOU REMAIN FIXED IN THE GENERALITIES OF THE "LAST KNOWN PERIOD" AND YOU IGNORE THE TRENDS OF THE CURRENT MOMENTUM

(FOR SURE THE INVERSE SITUATION COULD HAPPEN ALSO...)

AS CARSTEA WELL SAID YESTERDAY THE KEY IS TO CAN INDICATE WHO WILL ARRIVE ON TOP.....NEXT (And not who is on Top Currently)

Is what I have proposed to @paul too: to try to include in his brilliant analysis 'the trend of the current momentum' .....and I think that if @destroyer9 could include this factor too, his feedback on the matches will be really one of the greatest one too....

But For sure this is only a proposal for them...I don't want to be interpreted by them in the wrong way....is only to say that I like there posts and that I would like to read "in addition"...the "weight" of the 'current trend' in their predictions

"and how can number of points after 2nd service in only one match can be prove for that ? "

IS NOT A DIRECT MEASURE ....BUT FOR SURE IT REFLECTS THE QUALITY OF THE SECOND SERVICE

IF YOU KNOW ANOTHER ONE.......FEEL FREE TO INDICATE IT

WILL LOSE...(sorry again)

C) BUT I HAVE ALSO PREDICTED THAT FEDERER WILL LOST ....etc... :)
(sorry)

@rafanadak85 and @srllemo we are talking about

- THE PREDICTIONS REGARDING THIS MATCH, ISN'T IT?
NOT about ONE YEAR or about ALL LIFE ACTIVITY...

SO Who at that moment is BETTER ON DIFFERENT KEY POINTS....

a) I HAVE PREDICTED THAT DELPOTRO SECOND SERVICE WILL BE BETTER THAN FEDERER"S ONE AND I WAS RIGHT....

-----------------------------------------------------
2nd Serve Points Won 55% (33/59) DelPotro
54% (48/88) Federer
-----------------------------------------------------

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Share/Match-Facts-Pop-Up.aspx?t=560&y=2009&r=7&p=D683


B) I ALSO PREDICTED THAT FEDERER FIRST SERVICE WILL BE BETTER THAN DEL POTRO'S ONE AND I WAS WRONG ....

C) BUT I HAVE ALSO PREDICTED THAT FEDERER WILL WON ....etc... :)

(For general tips their is the General Comment section....I really have talked about the Predictions Related to This Match ONLY, that was the topic here I hope)

It`s certainly no doubt that Fed as the best 2nd serve in the game aswell for me. Franco Davin as improved Delpo 2nd serve so much and it`s a reliable weapon improving all the time having many options on the 2nd serve. But Federer for sure got the best 2nd serve.

@imolavs

I also don't understand how can you rate Del Potro 2nd service better than Federer, and how can number of points after 2nd service in only one match can be prove for that ? What about ATP official stats m8 ? Federer is ranked #1 in category 2nd SERVE POINTS WON with 58% and Del Potro is ranked 15 in same category with 53%

Sorry st-bookie, this post came up twice. Think myself and arfster each deleted one copy of your post. Here it is again...

I just came online,first time today. I was unlucky,or maybe blessed to watch that final last night. I had a huge bet on Fed taking a Slam from very beginning,and i'm still in a shock how it ended. When it was 6-3 and Fed serving for the second set...i was thinking: Is this that moment when Juan is gonna wake up just like against Cilic? It was...almost exact situation. But when he made 2 double faults to give away the third set to Roger,i was again calm,thinking: Ok,this could end up in 2 ways,either Roger is gonna use the momentum and blew the outfocused Argentinien from the court and win the last set 6-0...or he's gonna play calm,confident,give time to Juan to recover,and yet again give me a scare in tie brake. And fortune then turn her back on me and Federer. Del Potro just like Tsonga is so emotional,and mostly guy of a momentum,so if you have him in your hand..."Kill" him right now!! If you dont do it he will wake up,raise and kill you. I will never forget how Ljubicic just few months ago felt his moment against JMDP,took second set 6-1,use the momentum and won the match in third. I'm so dissapointed in Federer he coudnt do that. It sounds crazy that as match got to his end Juan had more and more energy while Roger was just fading. But nevertheless,as much as i'm sad for my money...i'm glad for Juan,because he haves such a heart,he's a true fighter. When Fed screwed me this year against Murray i was crazy from anger,and i will never forget Andy's statistic on the net in that match. In 3 sets 4 aproching on the net 1 point he won. Just defensive play,and he won. But Juan was so fantastic,agressive in each point,that i must admire him. My aces goes now to every member here who tipped Juan,with any sort of explanation. I didnt tipped anything,it was head against heart,and usually i dont want to choose between that.

@paul you need to delete also @destroyer9 posting, isn't it?

because the expression:
"beyond human logic" adressed to me, seems for me at least equals with "stupidities"

(of course that I didn't request this but is good to see....especially when he's wrong and he didn't checked the Match Statistic First, before to use such terms...)

@destroyer9 wrote:
"How you can rate del Potro's second serve better than Federer's one is absolutely beyond human logic because it's about 5 times worse.."



@destroyer I can because the Match Statistic shows this.

Could you check the Match Statistics FIRST PLEASE?

-----------------------------------------------------
2nd Serve Points Won 55% (33/59) DelPotro
54% (48/88) Federer
-----------------------------------------------------

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Share/Match-Facts-Pop-Up.aspx?t=560&y=2009&r=7&p=D683

(And please add also DelPotro's Unforced Errors on Federer's Second Serve, especially on the first set but not only)


But even without them:
DELPOTRO HAS A BETTER WON RATIO (beacuse 55% > 54%) ON HIS SECOND SERVE THAN FEDERER

So From where you took that Federer is 5-Times better on the second serve? Please be accurate and based on the statistics when you assert something measurable...

love del potro

Wow, I'm glad I never put a wager down on this 'cause like most others I was leaning towards Federer even though somewhere in the back of my mind realizing the value bet was with Delpo.

Now, this certainly warrants a rather different post-match discussion then what we've seen here. Sorry guys. I'll open up the floor with a question I think is rather interesting. What does this mean for Federer's future campaign? Is it the first step towards a re-lapse to the dethroning of the king? Or can he brush this defeat of as easily as he has been known to in the past?

@1052890: Great attitude pal. Good luck.

Magnificent game. I'm so happy. Del Potro made a magnificent present for me. I dodn't put any decent money on this match but I don't care. I have huge satisfaction just by predicting 5 sets marathon finished with one of my favourite players victory.
Beating Fedex in his temple where he won 5 finals in a row is a big achievement. For sure JMDP is future nr 1 in the world.

Boy, I missed out on some action here..heehhe

No body wants to lose. I say thanks to all those who take their time and post their insights onto each match, regardless of the outcome.

And I'll re-iterate the bottom line.It is up to the individual to wager what they think is right. Having said that...
I lost a *censored* *beep* *ken* load on unstoppable Fed but hey I'm still here waiting for the next round.

"Don't worry be happy" laaaaa la la la laaa la la la la la lahhh la la la la laa la laa.

In my opinion Fed's second serve is what kept him in the match as long as it did.

@imolavs: I see what you're talking about but you are completely missing the point. When I write my posts I look for pro's and con's both sides, but it's up to others if they choose to do the same thing. The purpose of match posts on TI is so you can collate as much information as possible in order to place a bet, so factual information is important. How you can rate del Potro's second serve better than Federer's is absolutely beyond human logic because it's about 5 times worse, Federer is the best second server in the business perhaps even history, and it is one area of Juan Martin's game that he must improve if he is to sustain and continue with the current level of success.

Big Congrats to Delpotro backers !

@imolavs

you mentioned me in your post match posts. About this match if you read my post you can see that I wrote I give same chances to players as bookies and don't want to back anyone with such odds. So please don't mention me as one who called people to back Federer, first because I am not writing posts to call anyone for anything, and secondly because in this particular match I wrote that I will avoid real betting and choosing Federer only for TI tipping.

From Carson: Knock, knock, Paul? Knock, knock? ;) Some other time... Maybe.

I did Dave. I was a little wound up and didn't appreciate your advice - I'll re-insert it.

Seriously, I've asked for an explanation...

...therefore I don't appreciate it.

Is whoever deleted my last post going to explain the reason?

There was nothing in it that warranted deletion...

Issue is and was closed. Cheers.

I re-post again my apologies (it was after DelPotro-Nadal match):

<<Sorry @paul, I really need to apologize to everybody qualifying some of their opinions as "stupidities" >>

I hope that I could close this issue in this way.....

Great, no problem, let's move on.

Ok @paul you have deleted it and it remains "deleted"
I remember also that I apologize immediately after regarding that word ...

Honestly I didn't talk about this now....

I didn't "take anything personally" - I deleted a single insulting post which wasn't directed at me personally but at members generally - what is it about that that you don't understand?????

@paul to make a compliment for you:
- you are the first guy that I read when I enter on TI

Now, you can understand better "my nerves" when I discover 1, 2, 3 times before an important match that "you are going completely wrong"

things are dynamics on Tennis ...and what was really the truth 3-4 months ago sometimes change rapidly ...

So please come back....judge by your own ....please take the last changes and trends into account ....

I need to read you again as you wrote about One Year Ago...and to be happy....

imolavs I won't be deleting your post because you haven't insulted anyone in it - do you understand what I'm getting at now?

Please read the TI guidelines for members' behaviour - it's pretty clear.

Secondly, I don't want any more contact with you. If other, more courageous members wish to debate you on this they have my immense admiration and gratitude but I don't want a thing to do with you or this debate.

All I care about is to ensure you don't insult anyone again - can I just say that I personally feel it's pretty bad form to do so when someone has just lost some cash. Not very compassionate or gracious in my opinion - and not allowed either.

May I also suggest as a fellow member (just a suggestion) you be a little more restrained in how you react after you get a tip correct.
Most people realise they'll get some right and some wrong and react accordingly realising we are one or two bets away from disaster but you seem to be acting like the font of all wisdom.
Someone acting like that could wind up being pretty embarrassed on TI if they start to get a few wrong.
Of course, you may wind up with a 100 percent success rate - I hope for your sake that you do - if you don't I think a few guys on the site may be pretty keen to remind you that you got it wrong.
Just some advice.

Finally, if you don't insult anyone then we won't have any problems.

THE MAIN FACTOR INTENNIS BETTING IS TO BET ON THE ONE WHO HAS THE MOST CHANCES TO TAKE THE LEAD

I AM NOT SURE WE WERE THAT WRONG PREMATCH

took delpo at 20@ and 8@

THAT IS WHY WE NEED A 1set OPTION
BECAUSE THAT is all about, picking the one taking the lead or not

@iLuc81 you are right in all you are saying...but I still think that TI can perform MUCH BETTER with THE HELP OF EVERYBODY HERE....

THIS WAS MY SINGLE POINT...IN ALL MY DISCUSSIONS (especially with @paul, that I really appreciate (unfortunately it took it personally))

Well, ultimately anyone can write long screeds. Judgement is only backed up by results - that's why destroyer has 6% RoI over approx 2500 tips (ie pro gambler territory).

As I said before, a single result means nothing. Federer was two points away from the match at the end of the 4th set, and could easily have won it in the tiebreaker too. Would the same opinions have been "wrong" then?

@carson you know as I that the "public opinion" is formed by "few" and propagated next by "many"
same phenomenon could be see on TI too....

Today Pro-Federer opinion was formed by @thedestroyer9, @paul, "blaecher report", @srllemo.....If tou read them "it sounds impressive sustaining that Federer will destroy DelPotro"
BUT with the risk that Paul will delete again my post....
the reality was different.... and was different not only today but on Nadal-DelPotro and Clisters-Serena too....

For this reason I need to ask the main writers here to make a deeper more pro-cons debate in their thoughts....this will help anybody here

imolavs

"on a match like this one is not ok to have on TI 59 tips on Federer and only 18 on DelPotro"


You are kidding right?
People can tip whoever they want.
A few of the big guys of this website tipped Federer offering an analysis pre match and Federer will always attract more money than what the odds suggest. I can't believe you are not understanding this.

I guess you still think that people win at gambling?

There is a very small % of people that win at betting and tonight the public suffered a massive bloodbath because Federer lost. It's that easy.
TI tippers lost TI money and the public lost big money.
Are you trying to convince this board that tonight the money on each side was exactly what the odds suggested?!?!

That being said, when TI tips 59-18 on the winner I didn't see you congratulate the board either.

The fact you are saying what you are saying is laughable.

I didn't say anything about this match though - and neither did the other guy you're criticising :-) Both of us were speaking about them as an average.

@imolays, what if the first X number of members all decide to select player Y, and then later somebody else wants to also select player Y? Would that mean they are forced to select player Z to even it out?

As arfster said, everyone is responsible for their own tips and that is irrelevent anyway.

@imolavs: I deleted one post of yours because of the "stupidites" reference - that's all.
None of your other posts have been deleted because you haven't insulted anyone in them.
Can't you understand - that's what this is about.

You can post whatever you like as long as it's not insulting or demeaning to other members.

@arfster regarding Federer's second service versus DelPotro's second service it seems that we didn't see the same match....

Unfortunately, ratio of tipping tells you pretty much nothing. As a theoretical ideal, 100% should tip the value bet, certainly not a split dependent on odds.

In reality, a large percentage will always tip the favourite, ignoring value (and consequently their RoI will trend towards -2.5%).

@paul I would appreciate if at least you will read my today post on DelPotro....

@Carson on a match like this one is not ok to have on TI 59 tips on Federer and only 18 on DelPotro.....THE RATION SHOULD BE AT LEAST BELOW THE OFFICIAL ODDS

and it was worst on DelPotro-Nadal.........

and it was worst on Serena-Clijsters (I bet myself on Serena)

@imolays, one of the the main purposes of Tennisinsight is so that users can collate any information they might want/need from various sources and use it to aid them in their decision-making; be it via the stats side etc or 'Your Insight'. I don't think tips are "triggered" as such, and I'm not sure I understand what point you are trying to get across - yes, there was many losing selections on this particular match but that is not really the point. How do you suggest we "avoid this trend"?

@imolavs: That's not what this is about.
I deleted one post of yours because of the "stupidites" reference - that's all.
None of your other posts have been deleted because you haven't insulted anyone in them.
Can't you understand - that's what this is about.

You can post whatever you like as long as it's not insulting or demeaning to other members.

Hrrrm, people are entirely responsible for their own tips. If they want to follow other people, that's their problem.

Incidentally, Federer's second serve is far stronger than Del Potro's.

@imolavs: I WON'T DELETE any of your posts as long as you DON'T INSULT other members.
It's very simple - the rules are simple.

I repeat - if you DON'T INSULT other members then you posts WON'T BE DELETED.

I can't make it any clearer.

@Cirstea. Thanks for the cheers. I like a little appreciation.

@paul MY POINT IS REALLY A CONSTRUCTIVE ONE:

- sometimes on TI there are a HUGE NUMBER OF TIPS 'on a wrong direction' TRIGERRED BY FEW.....

Could you be positive and think how to avoid this TREND.....

T.I needs a F.I.R.S.T set bet option because we know how and why a player can win the first set and not win the match

PLEAZ MODS
MAKE THIS OPTION
ASK FOR THIS NEW THING

Cheers Rafa and thanks, very gracious of you - great call by you too.

@paul seems that you have a preference to delete the GOOD POSTINGS And to Keep the BAD ONES.............

@arfster is not a problem to win a bet or to lose a a bet....

the problem is to understand the Key Points of a Match or NOT.....than you can loose or win of course.....

unfortunately again 59 wrong tips where triggered again by few here ...

for example I saw, even after the match, somebody that wrote here that DelPotro second service is poor......................and needs to be improved when DelPotro second service is for sure better than Federer's one.....

@imolavs: It seems you don't get my point - I'll try one last time - you can't call other members or their opinions "stupid" or "stupidities".
It's not allowed - that's why your post was deleted.

By the way, good to see you actually putting in a preview, that's what TI is all about.

@Imolavs - Let`s not go down that road (looking through other posts). Let us just be happy and be gracious in our victory, and for our champ Delpo :-)

Thanks everyone for the aces.

One of the mose useful truisms in betting is: Win some, lose some.

In other words, a single result essentially means nothing. 10 tips means nothing. Even 100 tips means nothing. Luck dominates tipping skill anywhere up to around 300-400 tips.

@paul please read again what I have wrote today ...

"bleacher report" ...your report, etc...etc...and others 'bla bla bla...' means nothing in RESPECT WITH WHAT REALLY HAPPEN ON THE COURT.

so at least please read again ....

"BET OF THE DAY
Del Potro plays a better tennis than Federer at this US open -- this for sure

What are Federer's main weapons:

1. DelPotro mental issue --- he never beat Federer

2. Federer's very good service - this for sure will be hard to be solved by Del Potro BUT at least in One game from Five (0.22 - see statistics) DelPotro would have an opportunity to break ...Djokovic made 4-2 in the first set against Federer ...etc...
However the second service will be easy to be turned back by DelPotro ...remains to see where....

3. Drop-Shots to force DelPotro to come on the net - knowing his disability to take the low balls when he comes to the net....This can still work with DelPotro....On the other hand this requires systematic good balls, nearby the net at the very low level....that sometimes is risky

4. Federer low-level Slices -> I don't think that this will function currently with DelPotro...


What are delPotro's main weapons:

1. A service at least - as good as Federer's one (if he will not have frustration problems in his mind)....First Service a little bit less good than Federer's one ...second service for sure better than Federer's one

2. DelPotro's backhand is better than Federer's one currently

3. DelPotro's forhand is better than Federer's one currently

So DelPotro is currently better on all chapters but the following:
- mental frustration
- variety of play
- low balls
- first service

Is this enough to win..... ?

He needs to start 'from somewhere'


Juan Martin Del Potro @ 4.050 : Huge Bet
"

I never in a milion years would have thought DelBoy can beet Fedex at USOPEN. I thought the match would be 3-0. And in fact it very easily could have gone that way. But DelBoy showed great fighting ability.You are truly a champ in your hart

Congrats to JMDP - absolutely brilliant and shoutout to all those who picked him here and with real money.

BTW anyone see my comment from few weeks back
"Aug 14 2009 00:42:08
This has prob. been debated before but here goes - Whos with me?
Del Potro to win a Slam before Murray... "

:-)

JuuaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnnMMMMMMMMMMarttiiinnnnnn

I have few things to say

Trading this match was maybe the ebst thing i have ever done
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Second, rafa@ and all who punt del potro before teh match u are just the ebst ever
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LAst, this Match was the greatest i have ever seen after more 5000 tennis matches

I loooovee uuu JJUUUUAAANNNNNN
III loove uuu guyyyssss

JUAN MARTIN DEELLLL POOOOOTROOOO!!!!! Gracias por la victoria amigo.
He has won me so much money!!!! You are a bad mother, and i cant wait to see you play in the future. "VIVA ARGENTINA"!!! VAMOS JUAN MARTIN!!!! Keep it up!

VAAAMOOOOSSSS!!

Well Delpo, what a great champion. I`ve only ever seen Nalbandian give Federer a beating like that with just winner after winner from the baseline. Delpo you rock!!! :-)

@arfster: exactly, no doubt about it. In fact, there is so much more to improve on that he is nowhere near the complete package right now. For periods in both the Nadal and Federer matches, del Potro virtually "won" the match by going on a hot streak where he was blazing everything from the back of the court. That won't win you matches and Grand Slams on a consistent basis, but if he can further develop the variety in his groundstrokes, improve his physique slightly and work on the second serve and playing the low slices (including developing that shot of his own) then it's going to be a scary force to be reckoned with. Fed didn't lose any admirers, but he did fall away very easily after squandering break points - and seemingly, match points - early on in the fourth set. His tactics and game plan as the match wore on seemed random and thoughtless, he lacked creativity and imagination when del Potro should have been feeling the pressure and he simply leaked errors off both topspin wings as the match wore on. He will look back on this match and rue the 5-4, 30-0 serving in the second set, where he most definitely would have won the match had he won those two points to go up two sets. He gave a sniff to a young, fearless competitor, and that will always spell doom.

Fed 47% first serve, and 11 double faults. That was his key problem today, especially against someone with as good returns as DelPot (hugely underrated part of his game imo).

Thanks potro for making me a happier and richer man :)